Evidence · period by period
Every cycle, published as it closes
Each period’s portfolio is selected afresh from new signals, so each one is a new, prospective test of the same thesis. That is why every period is published, not only the total.
- Periods
- 7
- In progress
- Period 7, day 21
- Benchmark
- RSP
- Record as of
- 20 Oct 2026
The periods
Alpha Convergence, cycle by cycle
| Period | Start | End | Days | Portfolio, net of 2% model fee* | Portfolio, gross | RSP | Excess vs RSP, gross | Days up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Live | 22 Sep 2026 | in progress | 21 | +2.2% | +2.4% | +1.6% | +0.7% | 57% |
| 6 | 23 Jun 2026 | 21 Sep 2026 | 63 | +4.7% | +5.2% | +1.8% | +3.4% | 48% |
| 5 | 24 Mar 2026 | 22 Jun 2026 | 62 | +16.6% | +17.1% | +9.8% | +7.4% | 63% |
| 4 | 21 Jan 2026 | 23 Mar 2026 | 43 | +1.3% | +1.6% | −2.0% | +3.6% | 51% |
| 3 | 23 Oct 2025 | 20 Jan 2026 | 60 | +8.3% | +8.8% | +3.7% | +5.2% | 60% |
| 2 | 18 Aug 2025 | 22 Oct 2025 | 47 | +7.1% | +7.4% | +2.5% | +5.0% | 62% |
| 1 | 27 Jun 2025 | 15 Aug 2025 | 35 | +4.4% | +4.6% | +3.4% | +1.3% | 60% |
* Net figures deduct a 2% model fee, the highest fee we charge. Our fees range from 1% to 2% a year, depending on the size of the account. The full schedule is in Form ADV Part 2A.
Portfolio returns are shown net of a 2% model fee*, with gross beside them, as FlightDeck’s AC Market Monitor shows them: each period’s net is FlightDeck’s published figure: closed periods from its billed fee series, the period in progress with the fee accrued daily. The excess over RSP is gross. RSP is total return. The strategy record starts on 27 Jun 2025 and includes 27 Jun to 18 Aug 2025 on firm capital, before client accounts began; client accounts were rotated into the strategy on 19 Aug 2025, and the client composite starts 1 Sep 2025. “Days up” is the share of the period’s trading days on which the portfolio closed higher, as FlightDeck reports it. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
* Net figures deduct a 2% model fee, the highest fee we charge. Our fees range from 1% to 2% a year, depending on the size of the account. The full schedule is in Form ADV Part 2A.
How to read it
DesignRead it as a process, not a factor
A single t-statistic can be argued with. A run of cycles is harder to explain away: each period’s portfolio is selected afresh from new signals, so each is a new, prospective test of the same thesis.
Independent, carefully defined
Each cohort is independently constituted. That is not the same as statistically independent: the periods share one market, one process and one manager, and we read them that way.
Why periods end when they do
A period ends at a rebalance, when the signals behind the book have decayed and fresh agreement between the two models rebuilds it. Holdings never run past 90 calendar days.
Period 7, in progress
- Started
- 22 Sep 2026
- Trading days so far
- 21
- Positions
- 22
- Portfolio, net of 2% model fee*
- +2.18%
- Portfolio, gross
- +2.35%
- RSP
- +1.62%
- Excess vs RSP, gross
- +0.7 ppt
* Net figures deduct a 2% model fee, the highest fee we charge. Our fees range from 1% to 2% a year, depending on the size of the account. The full schedule is in Form ADV Part 2A.
Updated each trading day at 1:30 PM PT. AC Market Monitor
Backstage tour
See it running live
A live screen-share of FlightDeck with Mark Tennenbaum, CIO: the command center driven in real time, how today’s market is classified and what the book does about it, and the record with the tests behind it.